11/11/2021

Nov 11, 2021


11/11/2021
Some indecisive action during a quieter day of trade and smaller ranges for corn and soybeans.  Corn traded 10 higher early in the session and then faded into mid-day to finish unchanged-1 lower.  Soybeans traded double-digits higher early in the day session and managed to post modest gains on the day as a beneficiary of positive crush margins.  Spring wheat made a big charge at the 8:30am open, trading around 20 cents higher, and closed the day 9-10 higher.  Fund interest and activity continues to push water uphill in support of the grains and somewhat ignore fundamentals and outside influences such as a lack of export business, comfortable ending stocks, ideal conditions in South America, and a sharp 2-day rally in the dollar.  USDA offices were closed for Veterans' Day today so our weekly export sales and any flash sales (if applicable) will be posted tomorrow morning.  It feels like inflation is priced into our commodities at this point when comparing current market levels on the board to our carryout inventories in grains to the historical data.   

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.