Grain > Commentary > 11-11-2021

11/11/2021

Nov 11, 2021

11/11/2021
Some indecisive action during a quieter day of trade and smaller ranges for corn and soybeans.  Corn traded 10 higher early in the session and then faded into mid-day to finish unchanged-1 lower.  Soybeans traded double-digits higher early in the day session and managed to post modest gains on the day as a beneficiary of positive crush margins.  Spring wheat made a big charge at the 8:30am open, trading around 20 cents higher, and closed the day 9-10 higher.  Fund interest and activity continues to push water uphill in support of the grains and somewhat ignore fundamentals and outside influences such as a lack of export business, comfortable ending stocks, ideal conditions in South America, and a sharp 2-day rally in the dollar.  USDA offices were closed for Veterans' Day today so our weekly export sales and any flash sales (if applicable) will be posted tomorrow morning.  It feels like inflation is priced into our commodities at this point when comparing current market levels on the board to our carryout inventories in grains to the historical data.   

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10/9/2026
Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.