Grain > Commentary > 11-11-2020

11/11/2020

Nov 11, 2020

11/11/2020
Today's market seemed to relax a bit after yesterday's USDA report surprises.  Corn settled back lower on the day down 6 after putting in new highs overnight.  Corn spreads are finally indicating that the export market does not want corn until January, February and March.  December to March corn is now back at a 9.5 cent carry which is a far cry from the slight inverse we were trading just two weeks ago.  December to July is now out to almost 15 cents.  Those of you needing to roll HTA's this is a great opportunity.  Those of you with December basis contracts might want to price that out before the November 25th deadline, because rolling them now does not look attractive.  Beans made new highs overnight up 16 cents before slightly fading and finishing up 6 cents.  The 190 million carryout continues to catch the bull’s eye and many are thinking that is still too high.  Farmer selling was non-existent today after yesterday’s busy day.  Corn seems to be locked away until the winter and springs months now, which is understandable as the board and basis continue to improve almost daily.  Beans are even harder to buy as the majority of them already got sold off the combine.  Beans continue to feel like they are going to work toward 12.00 futures.
 

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6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
5/12/2026
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT.