Grain > Commentary > 11-10-2021

11/10/2021

Nov 10, 2021

11/10/2021

Follow through buying after yesterday's WASDE report resulted in a strong day for corn and wheat.  Soybeans were the beneficiary of spill-over support.  The FSA acres report saw small increases in corn and soybeans and didn't offer much to trade.  Fundamentals for corn and soybeans say markets shouldn't be rallying.  The availability of corn and soybeans appears to be increasing around the globe and demand from our biggest market (China) has been on the decline since early this year.  It is concerning to me there was no business done on the PNW during last week’s price break on the board.  Weekly ethanol numbers were surprising with output seen lower at 1.04 million bpd, a decrease of 68,000 barrels/day.  Stocks increased 157,000 barrels to a total of 20.29 million barrels.  This is a seasonal average volume for ethanol.  July-August ethanol production was below average and the steep ramp up in ethanol production this fall was likely needed to fill a void in the pipeline.  Conversation continues on corn buying 2022 acres but the Dec 21:Dec 22 spread tells a different story with the 2021 contract closing at more than a 19 cent premium to 2022.  Freezing overnight temps look to become a regular thing starting the end of this week.

We have seen some strong moves higher in corn recently but trade is still consolidating off of the contract highs set in early May.  A breakout just ahead of expiration is likely on the December contract.
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January soybeans traded below our major support level of 1183’6 yesterday morning before the report and a not-as-negative-as-anticipated report spurred buying.

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
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9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.