Grain > Commentary > 11-1-2022

11/1/2022

Nov 01, 2022

11/1/2022
Soybeans lead the move higher today following an election result in Brazil that could move its government from "far-right" to "far-left."  With the incumbent unwilling to concede the election inside of a soy producing powerhouse, the market was nervous.  Also, crusher bids have strengthened significantly this week despite soybean oil and meal not following the sharply higher move in soybeans.  We now have a bit of competition between exporters and crushers for bean ownership.  Corn rode the coat tails of strength in soybeans.  Still was not able quite reach and break through the $7.00 level on the front month but finished near the highs today.  Insurers have halted coverage of vessels hauling grain out of Ukrainian ports which will essentially shut down exports out of the country. 

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9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.