Grain > Commentary > 11-1-2022

11/1/2022

Nov 01, 2022

11/1/2022
Soybeans lead the move higher today following an election result in Brazil that could move its government from "far-right" to "far-left."  With the incumbent unwilling to concede the election inside of a soy producing powerhouse, the market was nervous.  Also, crusher bids have strengthened significantly this week despite soybean oil and meal not following the sharply higher move in soybeans.  We now have a bit of competition between exporters and crushers for bean ownership.  Corn rode the coat tails of strength in soybeans.  Still was not able quite reach and break through the $7.00 level on the front month but finished near the highs today.  Insurers have halted coverage of vessels hauling grain out of Ukrainian ports which will essentially shut down exports out of the country. 

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.