Grain > Commentary > 11-1-2021

11/1/2021

Nov 01, 2021

11/1/2021
Another extremely strong day in corn, wheat, and oats despite lower opening calls for Sunday night.  Soybeans were 4-12 cents lower for a large portion of the overnight session but corn was able to hang just below unchanged.  Corn has now posted a higher close for 11 of the past 13 trading days, picking up close to 70 cents with no correction and a large correction is becoming imminent for corn.  This morning, the USDA announced the sale of 132,000 tonnes of soybeans to China for delivery during the 21/22 marketing year.  Soybeans traded a 20+ cent range evenly on either side of unchanged and closed today fractional to 1 lower.  Outside markets continue to support soybean values, keeping them moving sideways on the charts.  Last week's export inspections were mid-range for corn at 619k tonnes, right at the top of end estimates for soybeans at 2.272 million tonnes, and well under target for wheat at 115k tonnes.  Total export sales for this crop are ahead of last year but that was due to some unusual very early purchases at low prices.  Cumulative corn export shipment pace is now 122 million bushels short of the pace needed to meet the USDA target and soybeans are 88 million bushels short.  Fund buying in corn is extremely evident but we still don't know why.  Corn is an ethanol market and if that stops?  The FSA acres report for October is still A.W.O.L. and this is definitely coming together as a time to be proactive instead of reactive.

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.