10/9/2020

Oct 09, 2020


10/9/2020
Today was another wild day as the market kept the bull trend alive.  The USDA brought the bean carryout all the way down to 290 million, which seemed very friendly to the initial trade.  Beans traded up 32 on the initial reaction, then back to only up 6 in a matter of minutes, to finish back up 17.  They put bean exports up 75 million.  Bean yield was left unchanged at 51.9 bpa.  $10.00 cash bean orders filled today if you had orders working.  On the corn side it was a fairly neutral report.  Corn carryout was put at 2.167 billion carryout.  Corn yield was basically unchanged at 178.4 bpa.  Ethanol dropped 50 million and feed dropped 50 million.  Corn made a new high for the move today at 3.9825 December futures.  3.50 new crop orders filled today.  It still feels like corn is a follower here.  For the week corn was up 16 and beans were up 41.  Not bad for being in the middle of harvest.  Have a good and safe weekend!
 

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.