Grain > Commentary > 10-9-2020

10/9/2020

Oct 09, 2020

10/9/2020
Today was another wild day as the market kept the bull trend alive.  The USDA brought the bean carryout all the way down to 290 million, which seemed very friendly to the initial trade.  Beans traded up 32 on the initial reaction, then back to only up 6 in a matter of minutes, to finish back up 17.  They put bean exports up 75 million.  Bean yield was left unchanged at 51.9 bpa.  $10.00 cash bean orders filled today if you had orders working.  On the corn side it was a fairly neutral report.  Corn carryout was put at 2.167 billion carryout.  Corn yield was basically unchanged at 178.4 bpa.  Ethanol dropped 50 million and feed dropped 50 million.  Corn made a new high for the move today at 3.9825 December futures.  3.50 new crop orders filled today.  It still feels like corn is a follower here.  For the week corn was up 16 and beans were up 41.  Not bad for being in the middle of harvest.  Have a good and safe weekend!
 

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2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.