10/8/2020

We had more bean exports announced this morning which included 374,000 MT to China, 152,404 MT to Mexico and 132,000 MT to unknown destinations.  This is good news for continued demand with China just coming out of their Holiday.  These sales added fuel to the fire this morning as the bean story continues to explode.  There is a lot of unknowns at this point with tomorrows USDA report, South American weather, Covid, and elections in less than a month.  I cannot stress enough that this market is at a dangerous point.  The bean market has inverted very fast and in a massive way as the market continues to tell us it wants all the beans shipped by the end of January.  We switched to the January futures to take some of the risk away tonight.  January to March futures finished at a 25-cent inverse today.  January to May is at a 31-cent inverse.  The majority of that inverse came in the last 3 days.  Both corn and beans put in new highs for the move today before once again fading back into the close.  The estimates for tomorrows USDA report have corn carryout at 2.113 billion and bean carryout at 369 million.  Strap in tight as it truly feels like this market could go either direction.  I would be working $10 cash bean orders just in case.  Corn orders should be put in at 3.50 and 3.60.  This report is going to be wild and things can change in a hurry.   It feels like the market would not be happy to be unchanged tomorrow.  We have a lot of bullish new figured in the market, so how bullish does the report need to be to break out even higher.  Buckle In….