10/7/2022

Corn and soybeans bounce on money flow with Wall Street biting hard on the headline about barge traffic problems on the Mississippi.  Stocks and indexes were sharply lower today with DOW -2%, the NASDAQ -3.5%, and the S&P -2.5% as of about 1:00pm.  That money appeared to be moving to commodities.  I'm not sure they fully understand the river issue but soybeans were oversold and due for a correction higher, regardless.  Besides the small sale announcement on Monday morning, the USDA made no other 8 a.m. export sale announcements this week.  Brazil's CONAB released its early production estimates yesterday and they are definitely expecting some large year-over-year increases in corn and soybean production.  Soybean production was estimated at 152.3 million tonnes (125.5 mln last year, 21.3% increase) and corn production is estimated at 126.9 mln tonnes (112.8 mln last year, 12.5% increase).  These production increases include a 3.4% increase in soybean ground and a 5.4% increase in second crop corn ground.  The sudden fall-off in soybean futures has strengthened basis slightly with processors wanting to continue to grow ownership while combines are still moving.  A solid frost is forecasted for us tonight following by some 70 degree temperatures early next week.  Sounds like the perfect combination to keep harvest moving along!