10/7/2021

Oct 07, 2021


10/7/2021
Slow, two-sided trade overnight for both corn and soybeans.  There was a sharp sell-off at the 8:30 open but prices had recovered to unchanged well before mid-day.  At 8 a.m. this morning, the USDA confirmed two export sales to Mexico for delivery during the 2021/2022 marketing year of 9.6 million bushels of soybeans and 12.4 million bushels of corn.  Weekly export sales for corn and soybeans both netted over 1 million tonnes last week.  Corn outperformed estimates with 1.265 mln tonnes sold and net sales for beans total 1.042 mln tonnes.  Funds and managed money have been diligent in defending the nearest major support levels in soybeans ahead of the monthly WASDE report.  Trade went into consolidation mode quickly following the quarterly grain stocks report and a break out either direction on the charts would be a surprise if it happened before Tuesday's report.  Spring wheat and oats both set new contract highs today.  This is also another new ALL TIME HIGH in oat futures.  Oat futures have been trading at their highest levels in history since mid-August.  In what some would call role-reversal, the small grains have been supporting the corn and soybean futures over the past couple weeks.  The up-trends in wheat and oats are strong but any signs of weakness would be trouble for corn and soybeans.

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.