Grain > Commentary > 10-7-2020

10/7/2020

Oct 07, 2020

10/7/2020
The markets were wild again today as the bean story continues to heat up.  Beans put in a new high for the move today at 10.5975 before once again fading into the close.  The market continues to tell everyone that it wants the beans in November, December, and January and is inverting hard in the deferred months and Nov to May is now at a 26-cent inverse.  Bean space in the elevators systems are getting very tight as I am hearing about lots of ground piles.  As you saw yesterday, I decided to go to cash only on soybeans for the time being on future deliveries.  Space is getting very tight, which is a good problem.  Our goal as an elevator is always to be full coming out of  harvest because it gives us the best sales opportunities in the future.  I just want to assure you we are doing everything we can to keep dumping your soybeans and make room.  I appreciate all your business as always.  This policy is not meant to scare you away, it's meant to entice a few beans to go in the bin and in turn you can put the 15-cent cash carry in your pocket for doing so.  If you have any questions about it feel free to call me. 
 

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2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.