Grain > Commentary > 10-7-2020

10/7/2020

Oct 07, 2020

10/7/2020
The markets were wild again today as the bean story continues to heat up.  Beans put in a new high for the move today at 10.5975 before once again fading into the close.  The market continues to tell everyone that it wants the beans in November, December, and January and is inverting hard in the deferred months and Nov to May is now at a 26-cent inverse.  Bean space in the elevators systems are getting very tight as I am hearing about lots of ground piles.  As you saw yesterday, I decided to go to cash only on soybeans for the time being on future deliveries.  Space is getting very tight, which is a good problem.  Our goal as an elevator is always to be full coming out of  harvest because it gives us the best sales opportunities in the future.  I just want to assure you we are doing everything we can to keep dumping your soybeans and make room.  I appreciate all your business as always.  This policy is not meant to scare you away, it's meant to entice a few beans to go in the bin and in turn you can put the 15-cent cash carry in your pocket for doing so.  If you have any questions about it feel free to call me. 
 

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8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
8/15/2025
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
8/12/2025
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.