Grain > Commentary > 10-6-2021

10/6/2021

Oct 06, 2021

10/6/2021
Corn and soybeans were unable to maintain overnight strength with both finishing the day in the red and well off of the daily highs.  Weekly ethanol numbers bounced backed with output up 64,000 bpd to 978,000 bpd, an 8-week high.  Ethanol stocks were down 289,000 barrels to 19.90 million barrels, their lowest number in 18 weeks.  Soybean basis is starting to show a little more weakness.  The current western cornbelt average is 46.5 cents under Nov and the eastern cornbelt average is 44.75 cents under the average.  Comparing to one year ago, the western corn belt was averaging 63.75 cents under and the eastern was averaging 35 cents under the Nov 2020 contracts at this same time last year.  Next week Thursday, the USDA will release the October WASDE report.  Early estimate averages show a small increase in the 2020/21 ending stocks for corn to 1.432 billion bushels (1.408 in the September report).  After the USDA increased the size of the 2020/21 soybean crop in the quarterly grain stocks report, ending stocks are seen to increase to an average of 300 million bushels (185 mln in September).  After yesterday's big technical bounce in the soybean trade, the November contract tested support around the 1240'0 level again today.  

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1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.