Grain > Commentary > 10-6-2020

10/6/2020

Oct 06, 2020

10/6/2020
The grain markets start out strong overnight and never looked back.  The main talk is about Brazil be too dry heading into their planting season, which is putting them behind on their normal planting pace.  This has been talked about a little bit, but now it’s getting more press and could become an issue.  There were also rumor of more upcoming China bean purchases, so we will wait and see if that comes true.  There was also another sale of 154,400 metric ton of beans to unknown this morning.  Those three tidbits of news allowed beans to put in new highs at 10.5375 November futures.  It was very impressive to see the market hold at that level for a while with all the sales being made this morning before fading back about a dime into the close.  Corn once again feels like a follower, but it also put in a new high for the move at 3.8925 December futures.  It is hard to believe we can rally like this in the middle of harvest especially with the USDA report upcoming this Friday.  Maybe someone knows something we don't?  I would still take advantage of this rally here and continue to scale up sales.
 

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1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.