Grain > Commentary > 10-6-2020

10/6/2020

Oct 06, 2020

10/6/2020
The grain markets start out strong overnight and never looked back.  The main talk is about Brazil be too dry heading into their planting season, which is putting them behind on their normal planting pace.  This has been talked about a little bit, but now it’s getting more press and could become an issue.  There were also rumor of more upcoming China bean purchases, so we will wait and see if that comes true.  There was also another sale of 154,400 metric ton of beans to unknown this morning.  Those three tidbits of news allowed beans to put in new highs at 10.5375 November futures.  It was very impressive to see the market hold at that level for a while with all the sales being made this morning before fading back about a dime into the close.  Corn once again feels like a follower, but it also put in a new high for the move at 3.8925 December futures.  It is hard to believe we can rally like this in the middle of harvest especially with the USDA report upcoming this Friday.  Maybe someone knows something we don't?  I would still take advantage of this rally here and continue to scale up sales.
 

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9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.