10/6/2020

Oct 06, 2020


10/6/2020
The grain markets start out strong overnight and never looked back.  The main talk is about Brazil be too dry heading into their planting season, which is putting them behind on their normal planting pace.  This has been talked about a little bit, but now it’s getting more press and could become an issue.  There were also rumor of more upcoming China bean purchases, so we will wait and see if that comes true.  There was also another sale of 154,400 metric ton of beans to unknown this morning.  Those three tidbits of news allowed beans to put in new highs at 10.5375 November futures.  It was very impressive to see the market hold at that level for a while with all the sales being made this morning before fading back about a dime into the close.  Corn once again feels like a follower, but it also put in a new high for the move at 3.8925 December futures.  It is hard to believe we can rally like this in the middle of harvest especially with the USDA report upcoming this Friday.  Maybe someone knows something we don't?  I would still take advantage of this rally here and continue to scale up sales.
 

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Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.