10/5/2022

Oct 05, 2022


10/5/2022
The market struggled to find itself today.  We started the overnight session trading 1-2 steady higher in corn and 1-2 steady lower in soybeans, selling accelerated into the morning break.  Corn made an attempt to trade higher around the midday point but was sold back to unchanged before finding some late session buying to finish 1-2 cents up on the day.  Soybeans tried to rally back from some sharply lower trade at the 8:30 open but were unable to sustain any momentum and were held down to double-digit losses.  Overall, the markets were held in check today with the dollar index back in the green.  Weekly ethanol numbers saw a solid increase in production alongside an increase of new crop corn supply.  Production was up 34,000 bpd to 889,000 barrels total, stocks declined 1.01 million barrels to 21.69 million.  Crude oil easily found a bid today following a headline the OPEC+ plans to lower their daily production output by as much as two million barrels per day.  This puts the White House in an interesting position in terms of energy policy one month out from mid-term elections.  This energy policy that WILL have some sort of effect on grain demand (ethanol and soybean oil).

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.