10/5/2022

Oct 05, 2022


10/5/2022
The market struggled to find itself today.  We started the overnight session trading 1-2 steady higher in corn and 1-2 steady lower in soybeans, selling accelerated into the morning break.  Corn made an attempt to trade higher around the midday point but was sold back to unchanged before finding some late session buying to finish 1-2 cents up on the day.  Soybeans tried to rally back from some sharply lower trade at the 8:30 open but were unable to sustain any momentum and were held down to double-digit losses.  Overall, the markets were held in check today with the dollar index back in the green.  Weekly ethanol numbers saw a solid increase in production alongside an increase of new crop corn supply.  Production was up 34,000 bpd to 889,000 barrels total, stocks declined 1.01 million barrels to 21.69 million.  Crude oil easily found a bid today following a headline the OPEC+ plans to lower their daily production output by as much as two million barrels per day.  This puts the White House in an interesting position in terms of energy policy one month out from mid-term elections.  This energy policy that WILL have some sort of effect on grain demand (ethanol and soybean oil).

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.