10/5/2022

Oct 05, 2022


10/5/2022
The market struggled to find itself today.  We started the overnight session trading 1-2 steady higher in corn and 1-2 steady lower in soybeans, selling accelerated into the morning break.  Corn made an attempt to trade higher around the midday point but was sold back to unchanged before finding some late session buying to finish 1-2 cents up on the day.  Soybeans tried to rally back from some sharply lower trade at the 8:30 open but were unable to sustain any momentum and were held down to double-digit losses.  Overall, the markets were held in check today with the dollar index back in the green.  Weekly ethanol numbers saw a solid increase in production alongside an increase of new crop corn supply.  Production was up 34,000 bpd to 889,000 barrels total, stocks declined 1.01 million barrels to 21.69 million.  Crude oil easily found a bid today following a headline the OPEC+ plans to lower their daily production output by as much as two million barrels per day.  This puts the White House in an interesting position in terms of energy policy one month out from mid-term elections.  This energy policy that WILL have some sort of effect on grain demand (ethanol and soybean oil).

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Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT.