10/5/2021

Oct 05, 2021


10/5/2021
A strong double-digit bounce in soybeans was fueled by sharp rallies in soybean and Malaysian palm oil, today.  After making fresh lows for the move, soybeans key reversed higher today.  Corn tried to put together some strength throughout the day, trading its daily highs around the midpoint of the session, from that point, faded into the close.  Corn was feeling the pressure of a fast harvest after crop progress showed corn 29% harvested, well above the 22% 5-year average for this week.  Over the past 6 trading days, corn has struggled to trade and settle above the 50 day moving averages.  Yield reports continue to pop up from across the grain belt and, so far, there still very little evidence that the USDA's yield estimates are too big.  Some private analysts have started increasing their own yield estimates slightly.  For now, the USDA estimates of 176.3 for corn and 50.6 for soybeans are within reach.  Export inspections for corn and soybeans picked up pace again last week with 809k tonnes of corn (636k tonnes week prior) and 844k tonnes of soybeans (485k tonnes week prior) were inspected last week.  Continue to use these rallies and solid bounces like we saw in soybeans today to price bushels in town.  

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Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.