Grain > Commentary > 10-5-2021

10/5/2021

Oct 05, 2021

10/5/2021
A strong double-digit bounce in soybeans was fueled by sharp rallies in soybean and Malaysian palm oil, today.  After making fresh lows for the move, soybeans key reversed higher today.  Corn tried to put together some strength throughout the day, trading its daily highs around the midpoint of the session, from that point, faded into the close.  Corn was feeling the pressure of a fast harvest after crop progress showed corn 29% harvested, well above the 22% 5-year average for this week.  Over the past 6 trading days, corn has struggled to trade and settle above the 50 day moving averages.  Yield reports continue to pop up from across the grain belt and, so far, there still very little evidence that the USDA's yield estimates are too big.  Some private analysts have started increasing their own yield estimates slightly.  For now, the USDA estimates of 176.3 for corn and 50.6 for soybeans are within reach.  Export inspections for corn and soybeans picked up pace again last week with 809k tonnes of corn (636k tonnes week prior) and 844k tonnes of soybeans (485k tonnes week prior) were inspected last week.  Continue to use these rallies and solid bounces like we saw in soybeans today to price bushels in town.  

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1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.