10/5/2021

Oct 05, 2021


10/5/2021
A strong double-digit bounce in soybeans was fueled by sharp rallies in soybean and Malaysian palm oil, today.  After making fresh lows for the move, soybeans key reversed higher today.  Corn tried to put together some strength throughout the day, trading its daily highs around the midpoint of the session, from that point, faded into the close.  Corn was feeling the pressure of a fast harvest after crop progress showed corn 29% harvested, well above the 22% 5-year average for this week.  Over the past 6 trading days, corn has struggled to trade and settle above the 50 day moving averages.  Yield reports continue to pop up from across the grain belt and, so far, there still very little evidence that the USDA's yield estimates are too big.  Some private analysts have started increasing their own yield estimates slightly.  For now, the USDA estimates of 176.3 for corn and 50.6 for soybeans are within reach.  Export inspections for corn and soybeans picked up pace again last week with 809k tonnes of corn (636k tonnes week prior) and 844k tonnes of soybeans (485k tonnes week prior) were inspected last week.  Continue to use these rallies and solid bounces like we saw in soybeans today to price bushels in town.  

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.