10/4/2022

Some overall bullish optimism across the macro market space with the indices, stocks, equities, and most commodities seeing bounces higher alongside the fifth consecutive day of the dollar index pulling back from 20-year highs. As of about 1:00 pm, the DOW was trading 700 points higher, the dollar around 1.4 points lower, and crude oil $2.80/bbl higher. Money flow dictated action in corn and soybeans today with investor money coming in. It is estimated that China purchased in the neighborhood of 70 cargoes out of Argentina after the startup of a revised fixed currency exchange rate program for soy products fueled a frenzy of farmer selling in the country. There were also some rumors that China may have returned to the U.S. market with CIF values seeing a spike this morning. Weekly export inspections were within range for corn and soybeans but the current paces put us short of their USDA targets by 93 million bushels of soybeans and 89 million bushels of corn. These deficits continue to grow and we will likely need some type of issue to develop elsewhere to achieve the current USDA expectations. Yield reports circulating around the country have a positive bias to them with averages better than expected.

Corn has traded relatively sideway for the past 5 weeks and we have seen trendline support and resistance come into play several times in the past 10 days. With our trend lines looking like they could really pinch our trading ranges, the market could see a breakout in either direction during the second half of this week.