10/4/2021

Oct 04, 2021


10/4/2021
Markets opened weaker Sunday night with corn trading 3-4 lower and soybeans trading 8-10 lower almost immediately after the open.  This morning, we had an 8am sale announcement with the USDA confirming an export sale of 426,800 tonnes (16.8 million bushels) to Mexico for the 2021/22 marketing year. The buyers showed up for wheat, again, today, with corn and soybeans trying to play follow-the-leader.  Corn traded 6 higher and soybeans 1 higher around midmorning, then steadily faded throughout the day, closing well off of the highs.  December 22 corn traded a new contract high of 538'6 today before retreating.  Input prices for next year's corn crop have been a hot topic lately and with an increasing supply of corn now readily available most everywhere, this seems more like an attempt to buy acres for next year.  Soybeans continue to reel from the quarterly grain stocks report, with the November 2021 contract trading and closing below the 1240'0 level for the first time since the end of March.  1240'0 was a major support level and the report was very bearish for soybeans, it will be interesting to see what the funds and managed money decide to do in the soy sector in the near future.  Harvest should be full bore this week with a beautiful forecast ahead of us.  There are minimal soybeans left to come out and corn harvest is beginning to ramp up.

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Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.