10/4/2021

Oct 04, 2021


10/4/2021
Markets opened weaker Sunday night with corn trading 3-4 lower and soybeans trading 8-10 lower almost immediately after the open.  This morning, we had an 8am sale announcement with the USDA confirming an export sale of 426,800 tonnes (16.8 million bushels) to Mexico for the 2021/22 marketing year. The buyers showed up for wheat, again, today, with corn and soybeans trying to play follow-the-leader.  Corn traded 6 higher and soybeans 1 higher around midmorning, then steadily faded throughout the day, closing well off of the highs.  December 22 corn traded a new contract high of 538'6 today before retreating.  Input prices for next year's corn crop have been a hot topic lately and with an increasing supply of corn now readily available most everywhere, this seems more like an attempt to buy acres for next year.  Soybeans continue to reel from the quarterly grain stocks report, with the November 2021 contract trading and closing below the 1240'0 level for the first time since the end of March.  1240'0 was a major support level and the report was very bearish for soybeans, it will be interesting to see what the funds and managed money decide to do in the soy sector in the near future.  Harvest should be full bore this week with a beautiful forecast ahead of us.  There are minimal soybeans left to come out and corn harvest is beginning to ramp up.

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.