10/4/2021

Oct 04, 2021


10/4/2021
Markets opened weaker Sunday night with corn trading 3-4 lower and soybeans trading 8-10 lower almost immediately after the open.  This morning, we had an 8am sale announcement with the USDA confirming an export sale of 426,800 tonnes (16.8 million bushels) to Mexico for the 2021/22 marketing year. The buyers showed up for wheat, again, today, with corn and soybeans trying to play follow-the-leader.  Corn traded 6 higher and soybeans 1 higher around midmorning, then steadily faded throughout the day, closing well off of the highs.  December 22 corn traded a new contract high of 538'6 today before retreating.  Input prices for next year's corn crop have been a hot topic lately and with an increasing supply of corn now readily available most everywhere, this seems more like an attempt to buy acres for next year.  Soybeans continue to reel from the quarterly grain stocks report, with the November 2021 contract trading and closing below the 1240'0 level for the first time since the end of March.  1240'0 was a major support level and the report was very bearish for soybeans, it will be interesting to see what the funds and managed money decide to do in the soy sector in the near future.  Harvest should be full bore this week with a beautiful forecast ahead of us.  There are minimal soybeans left to come out and corn harvest is beginning to ramp up.

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.