10/31/2023

Oct 31, 2023


The corn market was quiet on Tuesday, with ranges of 5-6 cents and closes on either side of a penny higher catching most of the contracts.  Other than a buying spike around the mid-day point of the session, trade was extremely steady and sideways.  Soybeans were a little more exciting, with trade up to 18 cents higher at one time on the day.  We faded off of the intraday highs and ended the session with modest gains of 1-4 cents.  The USDA made an export sale announcement this morning confirming 239,492 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 2023/24 marketing year.  The forecasted ending stocks are tight for U.S. soybeans but demand has been a little sluggish, as well.  Along with continued farmer selling, November soybeans will struggle to eclipse $13.  Corn continues to be stuck in range trade.  Rallies continue to invite farmer selling and carry through strength on these rallies is lacking with big harvest activity still progressing through the U.S.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.