10/31/2023

Oct 31, 2023


The corn market was quiet on Tuesday, with ranges of 5-6 cents and closes on either side of a penny higher catching most of the contracts.  Other than a buying spike around the mid-day point of the session, trade was extremely steady and sideways.  Soybeans were a little more exciting, with trade up to 18 cents higher at one time on the day.  We faded off of the intraday highs and ended the session with modest gains of 1-4 cents.  The USDA made an export sale announcement this morning confirming 239,492 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 2023/24 marketing year.  The forecasted ending stocks are tight for U.S. soybeans but demand has been a little sluggish, as well.  Along with continued farmer selling, November soybeans will struggle to eclipse $13.  Corn continues to be stuck in range trade.  Rallies continue to invite farmer selling and carry through strength on these rallies is lacking with big harvest activity still progressing through the U.S.

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Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.