Grain > Commentary > 10-30-2020

10/30/2020

Oct 30, 2020

10/30/2020
Month end has arrived once again.  We continued the risk off mode heading into the weekend as energy and stocks were the worst performers.  Grains finished a touch higher on the close, but were uneventful.  Tuesday next week we can put the election behind us and get one big unknown out of the way.  Spreads on corn widened back out again today as Barge freight went CRAZY.  So, another words there is a lot of demand up front, but we can’t logistically ship it that fast.  This might be a good opportunity to roll your HTA’s out to the March and continue to let basis improve.    A 5-cent carry to March isn’t much, but it still beats zero.  Manage your risk accordingly. The USDA announced another sale of 121,500 MT’s of soybeans to “unknown” this morning.  This bean market continues to feel friendly to me, but this correction was due.  I think any break lower will be well supported.  Weather looks good next week to wrap up harvest.  The 8-14 day does not look nearly as good as it looks cold and wet.  Have a great Halloween weekend! 

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.