Grain > Commentary > 10-30-2020

10/30/2020

Oct 30, 2020

10/30/2020
Month end has arrived once again.  We continued the risk off mode heading into the weekend as energy and stocks were the worst performers.  Grains finished a touch higher on the close, but were uneventful.  Tuesday next week we can put the election behind us and get one big unknown out of the way.  Spreads on corn widened back out again today as Barge freight went CRAZY.  So, another words there is a lot of demand up front, but we can’t logistically ship it that fast.  This might be a good opportunity to roll your HTA’s out to the March and continue to let basis improve.    A 5-cent carry to March isn’t much, but it still beats zero.  Manage your risk accordingly. The USDA announced another sale of 121,500 MT’s of soybeans to “unknown” this morning.  This bean market continues to feel friendly to me, but this correction was due.  I think any break lower will be well supported.  Weather looks good next week to wrap up harvest.  The 8-14 day does not look nearly as good as it looks cold and wet.  Have a great Halloween weekend! 

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6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
5/12/2026
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT.