Grain > Commentary > 10-30-2020

10/30/2020

Oct 30, 2020

10/30/2020
Month end has arrived once again.  We continued the risk off mode heading into the weekend as energy and stocks were the worst performers.  Grains finished a touch higher on the close, but were uneventful.  Tuesday next week we can put the election behind us and get one big unknown out of the way.  Spreads on corn widened back out again today as Barge freight went CRAZY.  So, another words there is a lot of demand up front, but we can’t logistically ship it that fast.  This might be a good opportunity to roll your HTA’s out to the March and continue to let basis improve.    A 5-cent carry to March isn’t much, but it still beats zero.  Manage your risk accordingly. The USDA announced another sale of 121,500 MT’s of soybeans to “unknown” this morning.  This bean market continues to feel friendly to me, but this correction was due.  I think any break lower will be well supported.  Weather looks good next week to wrap up harvest.  The 8-14 day does not look nearly as good as it looks cold and wet.  Have a great Halloween weekend! 

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2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.