10/28/2020

Oct 28, 2020


10/28/2020
Today was correction day as it was risk off day in grains, energies and stocks.  Corn held the 4.00 support level, but will it hold tonight and tomorrow?  The next 48 hours will be important to see how these charts shake out.  The big question today is, is it over?  I doubt it's over.  This is a healthy correction for the markets and it was overdue.  We need to shake the tree every once in a while.  Now it's a matter of how long it lasts and how low we can go.  Covid headlines are back in a big way as we are setting records on new cases.  The election is next Tuesday, which is a major concern and unknown.  There is a lot of money moving to the sideline at the moment, which shouldn't be a surprise.  Let’s see what happens tomorrow and the balance of the week.
 

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Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.