Grain > Commentary > 10-27-2023

10/27/2023

Oct 27, 2023

Corn and soybeans end the week with a stronger tone.  Corn finished 1-2 cents higher on the day after ticking up as much as 5 cents.  Soybeans flourished with double-digit gains.  November breached the 1300 threshold, once again, before settled just below at 1297'2, up nearly 18 cents on the day.  The buzz around the market today was rumors of China cancelling Brazil sales and U.S. exporters looking to subsidize some freight in an attempt to draw out some commercial sales.  A risk premium was also added into the mix today following an increase in U.S. military action overseas.  Corn futures have held surprisingly well considering the harvest pace and yield reports.  If we are able to maintain our current 3-month trading range in corn, a seasonal post-harvest rally could provide some attractive cash corn prices but we should also expect that opportunity to be short-lived.

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10/9/2026
Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.