10/27/2023

Oct 27, 2023


Corn and soybeans end the week with a stronger tone.  Corn finished 1-2 cents higher on the day after ticking up as much as 5 cents.  Soybeans flourished with double-digit gains.  November breached the 1300 threshold, once again, before settled just below at 1297'2, up nearly 18 cents on the day.  The buzz around the market today was rumors of China cancelling Brazil sales and U.S. exporters looking to subsidize some freight in an attempt to draw out some commercial sales.  A risk premium was also added into the mix today following an increase in U.S. military action overseas.  Corn futures have held surprisingly well considering the harvest pace and yield reports.  If we are able to maintain our current 3-month trading range in corn, a seasonal post-harvest rally could provide some attractive cash corn prices but we should also expect that opportunity to be short-lived.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.