10/27/2022

Oct 27, 2022


10/27/2022
Another day of sideways trade comes to an end. November soybeans traded 13 cents higher shortly after 8:30 this morning but were unable to hold the move higher. The weekly export sales appeared to show a solid 1.026 mln tonnes of beans sold last week but more than half of that number was previous business switched from unknown destinations. Corn sales disappointed, coming in below expectations at 264k tonnes sold. Doing a year-to-year comparison, 2022/23 corn sales are currently 47% behind and soybean sales run 5% ahead of last year at this time. The savior for the corn market has been domestic demand. Ethanol and livestock appear to be doing "okay" even with the current high price for corn and seek further ownership.

Starting to see some attention being paid to the drought monitor as harvest winds down. The current state is supportive to the market as we go into winter.
drought-monitor.png

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.