Grain > Commentary > 10-27-2022

10/27/2022

Oct 27, 2022

10/27/2022
Another day of sideways trade comes to an end. November soybeans traded 13 cents higher shortly after 8:30 this morning but were unable to hold the move higher. The weekly export sales appeared to show a solid 1.026 mln tonnes of beans sold last week but more than half of that number was previous business switched from unknown destinations. Corn sales disappointed, coming in below expectations at 264k tonnes sold. Doing a year-to-year comparison, 2022/23 corn sales are currently 47% behind and soybean sales run 5% ahead of last year at this time. The savior for the corn market has been domestic demand. Ethanol and livestock appear to be doing "okay" even with the current high price for corn and seek further ownership.

Starting to see some attention being paid to the drought monitor as harvest winds down. The current state is supportive to the market as we go into winter.
drought-monitor.png

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.