10/26/2022

Oct 26, 2022


10/26/2022
Corn and soybeans tried to be higher early in the session but drifted back to unchanged/slightly lower throughout the day. Corn finished 1-2 lower and soybeans fractionally mixed on another day of extremely limited news with nothing solid to provide a direction. November beans looked like they were going to challenge the 1400'0 level but backed away quickly. On the board, resistance appears to building at 700'0 for corn and 1400'0 for soybeans. Weekly ethanol numbers showed higher than expected increases with production up 17,000 barrels/day to 1.03 mln bpd and stocks increasing by 447,000 barrels to 22.29 mln bbls total. Marketing year to date use of corn for ethanol is estimated at 678 million bushels, down 8% from the previous year and is about 20 million bushels below the pace needed to meet the USDA forecast of corn for ethanol use.

Oats are trading nearly $5/bu off of their all time highs set in April and back to levels traded in late 2020. Corn and soybeans are currently about $2.50/bu higher across this same timeframe. The oat trade has been viewed as indicator for other markets but the market has been silent on this.
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Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.