10/26/2022

Oct 26, 2022


10/26/2022
Corn and soybeans tried to be higher early in the session but drifted back to unchanged/slightly lower throughout the day. Corn finished 1-2 lower and soybeans fractionally mixed on another day of extremely limited news with nothing solid to provide a direction. November beans looked like they were going to challenge the 1400'0 level but backed away quickly. On the board, resistance appears to building at 700'0 for corn and 1400'0 for soybeans. Weekly ethanol numbers showed higher than expected increases with production up 17,000 barrels/day to 1.03 mln bpd and stocks increasing by 447,000 barrels to 22.29 mln bbls total. Marketing year to date use of corn for ethanol is estimated at 678 million bushels, down 8% from the previous year and is about 20 million bushels below the pace needed to meet the USDA forecast of corn for ethanol use.

Oats are trading nearly $5/bu off of their all time highs set in April and back to levels traded in late 2020. Corn and soybeans are currently about $2.50/bu higher across this same timeframe. The oat trade has been viewed as indicator for other markets but the market has been silent on this.
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Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.