Grain > Commentary > 10-25-2023

10/25/2023

Oct 25, 2023

Corn and soybeans both lower in very quiet fashion on Wednesday.  There has been very little fresh news or headlines as we continue to progress through harvest at paces very close to last year.  The past three weeks in corn have all looked similar with a strong rally on Thursday followed by three days of selling.  This would be the first week where have not been able to stabilize corn on the 4th day following a Thursday rally.  Ethanol production rose slightly by 5,000 barrels/day to 1.04 mln bpd.  The USDA announced a sale this morning of 126,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2023/24 marketing year.  117,200 tonnes of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2023/24 marketing year was announced yesterday.

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9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.