10/25/2023

Oct 25, 2023


Corn and soybeans both lower in very quiet fashion on Wednesday.  There has been very little fresh news or headlines as we continue to progress through harvest at paces very close to last year.  The past three weeks in corn have all looked similar with a strong rally on Thursday followed by three days of selling.  This would be the first week where have not been able to stabilize corn on the 4th day following a Thursday rally.  Ethanol production rose slightly by 5,000 barrels/day to 1.04 mln bpd.  The USDA announced a sale this morning of 126,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2023/24 marketing year.  117,200 tonnes of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2023/24 marketing year was announced yesterday.

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May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.