Grain > Commentary > 10-25-2022

10/25/2022

Oct 25, 2022

10/25/2022
A weaker dollar and simple trend-line support was enough to provide a bounce for corn and soybeans today. Our markets continue range bound as funds and spec traders wait on something to provide a sense of direction to the market. We are still two weeks out from the November WASDE report. The November version of this report from the USDA is typically rather quiet and features little-to-no changes but given how any type of market news has been stifling quiet, more emphasis may be put on this report as a market mover. The silence on yield reports around the grain belt is deafening which makes one think that if the crops were as bad, or worse, than we were told, the market would be talking all about it. We could be setting up for a scenario of a bigger than expected supply and overstated demand from the USDA. There is still good potential for some higher prices as we move out of harvest and towards 2023 but any sort of significant price rally will likely be sold off quickly.

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1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.