10/25/2022

Oct 25, 2022


10/25/2022
A weaker dollar and simple trend-line support was enough to provide a bounce for corn and soybeans today. Our markets continue range bound as funds and spec traders wait on something to provide a sense of direction to the market. We are still two weeks out from the November WASDE report. The November version of this report from the USDA is typically rather quiet and features little-to-no changes but given how any type of market news has been stifling quiet, more emphasis may be put on this report as a market mover. The silence on yield reports around the grain belt is deafening which makes one think that if the crops were as bad, or worse, than we were told, the market would be talking all about it. We could be setting up for a scenario of a bigger than expected supply and overstated demand from the USDA. There is still good potential for some higher prices as we move out of harvest and towards 2023 but any sort of significant price rally will likely be sold off quickly.

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Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.