10/25/2022

Oct 25, 2022


10/25/2022
A weaker dollar and simple trend-line support was enough to provide a bounce for corn and soybeans today. Our markets continue range bound as funds and spec traders wait on something to provide a sense of direction to the market. We are still two weeks out from the November WASDE report. The November version of this report from the USDA is typically rather quiet and features little-to-no changes but given how any type of market news has been stifling quiet, more emphasis may be put on this report as a market mover. The silence on yield reports around the grain belt is deafening which makes one think that if the crops were as bad, or worse, than we were told, the market would be talking all about it. We could be setting up for a scenario of a bigger than expected supply and overstated demand from the USDA. There is still good potential for some higher prices as we move out of harvest and towards 2023 but any sort of significant price rally will likely be sold off quickly.

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.