10/24/2022

Oct 24, 2022


10/24/2022
General weakness in corn with harvest and hedge pressure saw the commodity locked in 1-2 cent lower trade for a majority of the day. Soybeans were sharply lower, reacting to China further consolidating political power. November options also expired on Friday which may have left some feeling the pain of some bad call purchases and cutting losses. Weekly export inspections were 18.5 million bushels, well below the 41.1 million average that is needed weekly for corn to meet the USDA export forecast. Soybean inspections totaled 106 million bushels; a huge number that helps gain back some ground from the marketing year's slow start. Weather forecast looks favorable for corn harvest to be pretty well finished this week. The farmer was an active seller today, pricing delivered corn bushels.

Corn trade has been mostly sideways for the past two months, stuck inside of a 30 cent range and continues to coil/consolidate. Outlook is favorable for higher prices closer to the end of the year. Looking at the 725-750 futures area as a target window for future sales.
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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.