10/24/2022

Oct 24, 2022


10/24/2022
General weakness in corn with harvest and hedge pressure saw the commodity locked in 1-2 cent lower trade for a majority of the day. Soybeans were sharply lower, reacting to China further consolidating political power. November options also expired on Friday which may have left some feeling the pain of some bad call purchases and cutting losses. Weekly export inspections were 18.5 million bushels, well below the 41.1 million average that is needed weekly for corn to meet the USDA export forecast. Soybean inspections totaled 106 million bushels; a huge number that helps gain back some ground from the marketing year's slow start. Weather forecast looks favorable for corn harvest to be pretty well finished this week. The farmer was an active seller today, pricing delivered corn bushels.

Corn trade has been mostly sideways for the past two months, stuck inside of a 30 cent range and continues to coil/consolidate. Outlook is favorable for higher prices closer to the end of the year. Looking at the 725-750 futures area as a target window for future sales.
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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.