Grain > Commentary > 10-23-2020

10/23/2020

Oct 23, 2020

10/23/2020
Overnight markets traded lower, before bouncing back some by the coffee break.  You just can't keep a good thing down and these markets are on a roll!  The USDA announced the sale of 100,000 MT’s of corn to Unknown this morning, which didn't get the market too excited.  After bouncing around for a while this morning both corn and beans put in a new high heading into the close in the last ten minutes of trade.  Beans went from unchanged at 12:50 to trading up 13 at 1:20. Apparently, nobody wants to be caught short heading into the weekend.  There continues to be more stories of China needing more US corn, but still there are no new announcements to prove it.  With that being said I believe the business is coming at some point because this market is sure acting like it.  Both corn and bean spreads are on their way to inverting, which is not common and will pose some problems logistically for some.  The market continues to move higher, farmer engagement is rather heavy of late, and basis continues to firm as the market wants grain sooner than later.  That is a near perfect storm.  We are definitely in some interesting times, but it is also dangerous for some.  Be careful and do what is best for your business.  This is not a time to get caught doing nothing with the election upon us and betting on China's demand in the future.  It's raining in Brazil, but no one cares.  It's all about US demand at the moment. 
 

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9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
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8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
8/15/2025
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.