10/22/2021

Oct 22, 2021


10/22/2021
Another big surge across the wheat trade with the Spring Wheat front month eclipsing the 1000'0 level for the first time since 2012.  Big buying interest in wheat and good ethanol margins propped up corn to finish 3 to 5 higher and go into the weekend on a strong note.  Demand likes to put together a bullish outlook for corn but ethanol profitability through the entire marketing year is more important than what we see right now.  December corn has tapped out at the 540'0 mark each of the last 3 days but has also posted higher lows each of those days, forming a small bull flag on the chart.  A small break higher is possible next week.  Soybeans in general have been weaker as of late and continued this trend today.  November options expired today and the contract will go through delivery and expiration over the next few weeks.  Charts continue to give a bearish bias for soybeans.  The wheat market as a whole has some interesting dynamics going on.  The market is begging for someone to sell but an actual bid doesn't seem to exist.  Today's big move higher likely included some folks simply getting squeezed out.  Weekly cash closes: corn up 9 cents and soybeans 4 cents higher.  Weather-wise, we look to be heading down towards more seasonal temps through this weekend and next week. 

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.