10/22/2021

Oct 22, 2021


10/22/2021
Another big surge across the wheat trade with the Spring Wheat front month eclipsing the 1000'0 level for the first time since 2012.  Big buying interest in wheat and good ethanol margins propped up corn to finish 3 to 5 higher and go into the weekend on a strong note.  Demand likes to put together a bullish outlook for corn but ethanol profitability through the entire marketing year is more important than what we see right now.  December corn has tapped out at the 540'0 mark each of the last 3 days but has also posted higher lows each of those days, forming a small bull flag on the chart.  A small break higher is possible next week.  Soybeans in general have been weaker as of late and continued this trend today.  November options expired today and the contract will go through delivery and expiration over the next few weeks.  Charts continue to give a bearish bias for soybeans.  The wheat market as a whole has some interesting dynamics going on.  The market is begging for someone to sell but an actual bid doesn't seem to exist.  Today's big move higher likely included some folks simply getting squeezed out.  Weekly cash closes: corn up 9 cents and soybeans 4 cents higher.  Weather-wise, we look to be heading down towards more seasonal temps through this weekend and next week. 

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.