10/22/2021

Oct 22, 2021


10/22/2021
Another big surge across the wheat trade with the Spring Wheat front month eclipsing the 1000'0 level for the first time since 2012.  Big buying interest in wheat and good ethanol margins propped up corn to finish 3 to 5 higher and go into the weekend on a strong note.  Demand likes to put together a bullish outlook for corn but ethanol profitability through the entire marketing year is more important than what we see right now.  December corn has tapped out at the 540'0 mark each of the last 3 days but has also posted higher lows each of those days, forming a small bull flag on the chart.  A small break higher is possible next week.  Soybeans in general have been weaker as of late and continued this trend today.  November options expired today and the contract will go through delivery and expiration over the next few weeks.  Charts continue to give a bearish bias for soybeans.  The wheat market as a whole has some interesting dynamics going on.  The market is begging for someone to sell but an actual bid doesn't seem to exist.  Today's big move higher likely included some folks simply getting squeezed out.  Weekly cash closes: corn up 9 cents and soybeans 4 cents higher.  Weather-wise, we look to be heading down towards more seasonal temps through this weekend and next week. 

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.