10/21/2021

It was puzzling to me a week ago and still have yet to figure out why the funds wanted to push water uphill and buy this market when they did. We started the overnight session with some two-sided trade but gave way to weakness going into the morning coffee break. Net export sales posted some very nice totals from last week with corn pushing the top end of expectations at 1.273 million tonnes sold and soybeans out-performing expectations with 2.878 million tonnes sold. Export sales accumulated totals have shown some good improvements during October but soybeans still have some catching up to do. Corn is sticking close to last year's big pace. The USDA did light up the 8am wire this morning, confirming the sale of 130,000 tonnes of corn to Mexico for the 2021/22 marketing year. With December 22 corn still lurking within reach of its contract high, I like putting on some new crop corn sales at the current levels if you have nothing on the books for next year. November 22 soybeans closed near the bottom side of their trend channel today. Still an excellent value to start if you have done nothing yet. It could possibly be worth waiting for a return to the top side of the channel if you already have some sales on.

Below:
Dec. 21 corn closed above its 50-day moving average yesterday after finding some stiff resistance there multiple times. We immediately looked for that line to become support and it failed its first test today. The November bean contract is nearing first notice and expiration but is also farming a potential large head and shoulders pattern. The 20-day moving average has proven to be stiff resistance on any upward move.