10/21/2020

Oct 21, 2020


10/21/2020
These markets continue to get more interesting by the day.  The situation we have setting up might be one for the ages.  Everyone seems to want the grain now and the carries are disappeared in a hurry in both corn and beans.  Can both markets actually go to an inverse?  Anything is possible in the year 2020.  The market can't seem to get any more bullish, so be careful.  This is usually when we get some type of surprise.  We never like to rely solely on China, but that is exactly what we’re doing.  With an election right around the corner it seems a bit more dangerous than typical.  The managed money is driving the bus and are at near record levels in ag commodities.  Managed funds are estimated long near 725,000 total contracts. Their record long was 779,000 on August 21, 2012.  Of that total they are estimated net long 252,000 soybeans, 231,000 corn along with a big chunk of meal, oil, and other commodities.  Who continues to buy this market once the funds quit after getting to new record levels?  I am hearing some BIG numbers thrown out there on beans to the tune of $12 futures.  This typically happens when were near a high.  I am not saying that cannot happen, but we will need a bigger problem in South America.  I would be protecting current levels with another round of sales.  If we break lower maybe take a stab at reowning some of your sales.
 

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