10/20/2021

Soybean crush margins made another large positive move, triggering funds and managed money to buy the entire soy complex.  About a week ago, funds were short soybeans and today's surge offered spillover support to corn, where the December contract finally traded and closed back above its 50-day moving average.  November beans have bounced off of the March low of 1184 shortly after this month's WASDE report but, on the outside looking in, feels like the market really hasn't traded a 320 mln bu carry out, yet.  With better-than-expected soybean yields more common than not across the western corn belt and more Brazil soy acres expected, this is a rally to sell into.  Funds suddenly interested in being long at a time of our largest supply is odd.  8am export sale announcements have suddenly gone quiet this week and the FSA acres update that was due last Tuesday has still not been released.  Strong ethanol margins have resulted in a big upswing in production.  Weekly ethanol numbers gave us the 3 highest productions ever with 1.096 million barrels per day last week.  Stocks increased 233,000 barrels to 20.02 million barrels.  Spring wheat continues its strong trend higher, setting new contract highs again today and the front month looks like it will give the 10.00 level its first test soon.