10/19/2023

Oct 19, 2023


After failing on the three previous attempts, December corn finally pushed through the $5 level in fairly strong fashion.  While there were some rumors of export business early on, today's trade seemed to be driven by funds exiting length in the cattle trade and unloading short corn positions.  Similar to what we see on the soybean charts, corn has some hurdles to jump just above the current level.  On the December chart, we have the 100-day moving average at 509, a gap to fill at 525, and the 200-day moving average at 536.  November soybeans set a new high for October as the sun rose this morning and were sold off around mid-morning on hedge pressure, down to the 1300 level where money was more than ready to protect and buyers came back in swiftly.  On November soybeans, resistance sits at the convergence of the 100- and 200-day moving averages near 1317'4, trade and hold above that and we have some room overhead to run.  Given our -60 basis, cash sales in the $12.60-12.65 area are a healthy start.  Upside potential towards the $12.90 cash area is realistic at this time.

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Mar 11, 2025
The monthly USDA WASDE report was today and it was about as boring as it can get.  The USDA took the month off leaving corn and beans carryouts unchanged.  Corn remains at 1.540 billion bushels and beans at 380 million bushels.  World ending stocks were slightly lowered on both corn and beans.  World corn was pegged at 288.94 million tonnes vs 290.3 million tonnes previously.  World beans were pegged at 121.4 million tonnes vs 124.3 million tonnes previously.  All of the South American crop production estimates were also left unchanged.  
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