Grain > Commentary > 10-19-2020

10/19/2020

Oct 19, 2020

10/19/2020
Corn and beans were higher today on another round announced export sales this morning.  We had 123,000 metric tons of corn to Mexico and 345,000 metric tons of corn to Unknown (Likely China).  This export market is setting up to be a monster as it gets better by the day.  There remains a lot of chatter that China will need to buy a greater amount of US corn and beans as South America may have over shipped short term.  Stay tuned on that front, but make sure you keep in mind that it is an election year and anything can happen.  We will get an updated look at harvest progress this afternoon as it should have been a solid week.  Cold temps and snow may delay us for a while, but overall it has been wonderful harvest.  Weekly US soybean exports were 80 mil bu versus 88 last week and 49 last year. Season to date exports are near 423 mil bu versus 238 last year. USDA goal is 2,200 versus 1,676 last year.  Some could see exports as high as 2,350.  Weekly US corn exports were 36 mil bu versus 33 last week and 23 last year. Season to date exports are near 215 mil bu versus 121 last year. USDA goal is 2,325 mil bu versus 1,778 last year. This includes 500 mil bu total to China versus 80 last year. Some estimates of China demand for US corn are as high as 900 mil bu.
 

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.