10/19/2020

Oct 19, 2020


10/19/2020
Corn and beans were higher today on another round announced export sales this morning.  We had 123,000 metric tons of corn to Mexico and 345,000 metric tons of corn to Unknown (Likely China).  This export market is setting up to be a monster as it gets better by the day.  There remains a lot of chatter that China will need to buy a greater amount of US corn and beans as South America may have over shipped short term.  Stay tuned on that front, but make sure you keep in mind that it is an election year and anything can happen.  We will get an updated look at harvest progress this afternoon as it should have been a solid week.  Cold temps and snow may delay us for a while, but overall it has been wonderful harvest.  Weekly US soybean exports were 80 mil bu versus 88 last week and 49 last year. Season to date exports are near 423 mil bu versus 238 last year. USDA goal is 2,200 versus 1,676 last year.  Some could see exports as high as 2,350.  Weekly US corn exports were 36 mil bu versus 33 last week and 23 last year. Season to date exports are near 215 mil bu versus 121 last year. USDA goal is 2,325 mil bu versus 1,778 last year. This includes 500 mil bu total to China versus 80 last year. Some estimates of China demand for US corn are as high as 900 mil bu.
 

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.