10/18/2023

Solid bounces higher in both corn and soybeans on Wednesday.  The market seems to becoming more comfortable with the idea that seasonal lows have been set for grains and funds have been working towards reducing their short position in corn.  Yield reports from around the country are telling us that we have a solid average crop in hand with a high variability.  This morning, the USDA confirmed the sale of 132,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2023/24 marketing year.  Weekly ethanol data showed an increase in production by 31,000 barrels/day to 1.035 mln bpd.  Stocks were off 400k barrels down to 21.1 million bbls.  Ethanol margins are lucrative and continue to improve.  We need ethanol to maintain corn demand until some export business materializes.

Corn continues to consolidate just below the $5 level and could continue to do so for a couple more weeks.  Two months of boring, range-bound trade will fuel a large breakout.