Grain > Commentary > 10-18-2023

10/18/2023

Oct 18, 2023

Solid bounces higher in both corn and soybeans on Wednesday.  The market seems to becoming more comfortable with the idea that seasonal lows have been set for grains and funds have been working towards reducing their short position in corn.  Yield reports from around the country are telling us that we have a solid average crop in hand with a high variability.  This morning, the USDA confirmed the sale of 132,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2023/24 marketing year.  Weekly ethanol data showed an increase in production by 31,000 barrels/day to 1.035 mln bpd.  Stocks were off 400k barrels down to 21.1 million bbls.  Ethanol margins are lucrative and continue to improve.  We need ethanol to maintain corn demand until some export business materializes.

Corn continues to consolidate just below the $5 level and could continue to do so for a couple more weeks.  Two months of boring, range-bound trade will fuel a large breakout.

Read More News

7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
5/12/2026
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.