Grain > Commentary > 10-18-2023

10/18/2023

Oct 18, 2023

Solid bounces higher in both corn and soybeans on Wednesday.  The market seems to becoming more comfortable with the idea that seasonal lows have been set for grains and funds have been working towards reducing their short position in corn.  Yield reports from around the country are telling us that we have a solid average crop in hand with a high variability.  This morning, the USDA confirmed the sale of 132,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2023/24 marketing year.  Weekly ethanol data showed an increase in production by 31,000 barrels/day to 1.035 mln bpd.  Stocks were off 400k barrels down to 21.1 million bbls.  Ethanol margins are lucrative and continue to improve.  We need ethanol to maintain corn demand until some export business materializes.

Corn continues to consolidate just below the $5 level and could continue to do so for a couple more weeks.  Two months of boring, range-bound trade will fuel a large breakout.

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.