10/18/2021

Oct 18, 2021


10/18/2021
Corn and soybeans saw the last few days’ uptrend continue with December corn closing just below its overhead consolidation trend line and 50 day moving-average.  Markets started out the overnight session mostly weaker and bouncing around either side of unchanged.  The weekly export inspections helped ignite some excitement with 2.298 million tonnes of soybeans and 976k tonnes of corn inspected for shipment last week, both above trade range expectations and a good sign that the export program is humming along at the time period of our largest supply.  Weekly crop progress is expected to show that we are still well ahead of average harvest pace for corn and soybeans.  Brazil is planting soybeans in ideal conditions and well ahead of their average pace, with their biggest soybean producing state Mato Grasso estimated to be 45% planted (8% last year, 26% 5-year average).  With the size of the soybean crop in South America expected to see a solid increase, it's extremely important for the US to be efficient in shipping out soy exports this year.  Locally, we had a big harvest weekend and it looks like the greater portion of harvest will be complete at the end of this week, pending potential rain on Wednesday. 

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.