10/18/2021

Oct 18, 2021


10/18/2021
Corn and soybeans saw the last few days’ uptrend continue with December corn closing just below its overhead consolidation trend line and 50 day moving-average.  Markets started out the overnight session mostly weaker and bouncing around either side of unchanged.  The weekly export inspections helped ignite some excitement with 2.298 million tonnes of soybeans and 976k tonnes of corn inspected for shipment last week, both above trade range expectations and a good sign that the export program is humming along at the time period of our largest supply.  Weekly crop progress is expected to show that we are still well ahead of average harvest pace for corn and soybeans.  Brazil is planting soybeans in ideal conditions and well ahead of their average pace, with their biggest soybean producing state Mato Grasso estimated to be 45% planted (8% last year, 26% 5-year average).  With the size of the soybean crop in South America expected to see a solid increase, it's extremely important for the US to be efficient in shipping out soy exports this year.  Locally, we had a big harvest weekend and it looks like the greater portion of harvest will be complete at the end of this week, pending potential rain on Wednesday. 

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Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.