10/18/2021

Oct 18, 2021


10/18/2021
Corn and soybeans saw the last few days’ uptrend continue with December corn closing just below its overhead consolidation trend line and 50 day moving-average.  Markets started out the overnight session mostly weaker and bouncing around either side of unchanged.  The weekly export inspections helped ignite some excitement with 2.298 million tonnes of soybeans and 976k tonnes of corn inspected for shipment last week, both above trade range expectations and a good sign that the export program is humming along at the time period of our largest supply.  Weekly crop progress is expected to show that we are still well ahead of average harvest pace for corn and soybeans.  Brazil is planting soybeans in ideal conditions and well ahead of their average pace, with their biggest soybean producing state Mato Grasso estimated to be 45% planted (8% last year, 26% 5-year average).  With the size of the soybean crop in South America expected to see a solid increase, it's extremely important for the US to be efficient in shipping out soy exports this year.  Locally, we had a big harvest weekend and it looks like the greater portion of harvest will be complete at the end of this week, pending potential rain on Wednesday. 

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Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.
Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.