Grain > Commentary > 10-16-2023

10/16/2023

Oct 16, 2023

Relatively unexciting ranges of 7 cents in corn and 10 cents in soybeans to start the week.  Highs were set on the open of overnight trade.  Weekly export inspections were a miss to the low-side for corn with 435k tonnes inspected.  Soybeans outperformed expectations in a big way with 2.012 mln tonnes shipped versus the estimate 1.3 mln tonnes.  Historical data shows that this volume would fit within the norm for the week.  Corn and soybean shipping pace for the marketing year is close to target for both.  The USDA confirmed two export sales for delivery in the 2023/24 marketing year with 200,000 tonnes of corn to Mexico and 183,000 tonnes of soymeal to the Phillipines.  NOPA crush for September totaled 165.456 mln bushels vs the estimated 161.7 mln bushels.  Soyoil stocks totaled 1.108 bln lbs vs 1.208 bln lbs estimated.  

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.