10/16/2023

Oct 16, 2023


Relatively unexciting ranges of 7 cents in corn and 10 cents in soybeans to start the week.  Highs were set on the open of overnight trade.  Weekly export inspections were a miss to the low-side for corn with 435k tonnes inspected.  Soybeans outperformed expectations in a big way with 2.012 mln tonnes shipped versus the estimate 1.3 mln tonnes.  Historical data shows that this volume would fit within the norm for the week.  Corn and soybean shipping pace for the marketing year is close to target for both.  The USDA confirmed two export sales for delivery in the 2023/24 marketing year with 200,000 tonnes of corn to Mexico and 183,000 tonnes of soymeal to the Phillipines.  NOPA crush for September totaled 165.456 mln bushels vs the estimated 161.7 mln bushels.  Soyoil stocks totaled 1.108 bln lbs vs 1.208 bln lbs estimated.  

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.