10/15/2021

Oct 15, 2021


10/15/2021
Strong moves higher in wheat and oats, along with some technical support on the charts, lift corn and soybeans to finish the week.  Trade was lower at the overnight open but never looked in the rearview once we were back in the green.  The USDA announced 3 separate soybean sales for the 2021/22 marketing year at 8am this morning; 396,000 tonnes to unknown, 326,750 tonnes to unknown, and 132,000 tonnes to China for a total of 31.4 million bushels.  Net export sales for last week topped one million tonnes for corn and soybeans and were mid-range for trade estimates.  Last week netted 1.04 million tonnes of corn and 1.15 million tonnes of soybeans sold for export.  An unusually information packed Friday also included the NOPA crush numbers for September.  Bushels crushed was reported at 153.8 million vs 155 million estimated and soyoil stocks came in at 1.684 billion barrels vs 1.663 estimated.  With this morning’s large export sale announcement, the market wasn't concerned with these slightly negative numbers.  Current forecast looks like we should have a big harvest weekend across the western corn belt.  

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.