10/15/2021

Oct 15, 2021


10/15/2021
Strong moves higher in wheat and oats, along with some technical support on the charts, lift corn and soybeans to finish the week.  Trade was lower at the overnight open but never looked in the rearview once we were back in the green.  The USDA announced 3 separate soybean sales for the 2021/22 marketing year at 8am this morning; 396,000 tonnes to unknown, 326,750 tonnes to unknown, and 132,000 tonnes to China for a total of 31.4 million bushels.  Net export sales for last week topped one million tonnes for corn and soybeans and were mid-range for trade estimates.  Last week netted 1.04 million tonnes of corn and 1.15 million tonnes of soybeans sold for export.  An unusually information packed Friday also included the NOPA crush numbers for September.  Bushels crushed was reported at 153.8 million vs 155 million estimated and soyoil stocks came in at 1.684 billion barrels vs 1.663 estimated.  With this morning’s large export sale announcement, the market wasn't concerned with these slightly negative numbers.  Current forecast looks like we should have a big harvest weekend across the western corn belt.  

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Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.