Grain > Commentary > 10-14-2021

10/14/2021

Oct 14, 2021

10/14/2021
Some early strength overnight resulted in a nice technical recovery for corn and soybeans. The 200-day moving average was the support line in corn not very long ago and was the mark for overhead resistance today, limiting gains in the front three trading months. Overall, the market became oversold very quickly after two unfriendly reports within 10 trading days of each other and a fast correction was due. This morning, the USDA confirmed the sale of 132,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to unknown during the 2021/22 marketing year. Ethanol numbers this week showed daily output increasing 54,000 barrels/day to 1.03 mln bpd and stocks off 84,000 barrels to 19.85 mln bbls. Comparing our fresh carryout forecasts and current market levels, grain prices are a premium when compared to the available supply. Also, following the most recent price break, US soy has become the cheapest globally. I've been struggling to quantify how inflation would affect grain prices and maybe we are finally nearing those numbers? The market appears to be comfortable with current price levels for corn in the US and soybeans may see some price improvement based on simply being the cheapest. For those in need, soybean meal futures look attractive right now. 310.0-320.0/ton is what you would typically see with $9.00 soybeans.

Below:
2 month change in the drought monitor.
1.jpg

Read More News

8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
8/15/2025
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
8/12/2025
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.