Grain > Commentary > 10-14-2021

10/14/2021

Oct 14, 2021

10/14/2021
Some early strength overnight resulted in a nice technical recovery for corn and soybeans. The 200-day moving average was the support line in corn not very long ago and was the mark for overhead resistance today, limiting gains in the front three trading months. Overall, the market became oversold very quickly after two unfriendly reports within 10 trading days of each other and a fast correction was due. This morning, the USDA confirmed the sale of 132,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to unknown during the 2021/22 marketing year. Ethanol numbers this week showed daily output increasing 54,000 barrels/day to 1.03 mln bpd and stocks off 84,000 barrels to 19.85 mln bbls. Comparing our fresh carryout forecasts and current market levels, grain prices are a premium when compared to the available supply. Also, following the most recent price break, US soy has become the cheapest globally. I've been struggling to quantify how inflation would affect grain prices and maybe we are finally nearing those numbers? The market appears to be comfortable with current price levels for corn in the US and soybeans may see some price improvement based on simply being the cheapest. For those in need, soybean meal futures look attractive right now. 310.0-320.0/ton is what you would typically see with $9.00 soybeans.

Below:
2 month change in the drought monitor.
1.jpg

Read More News

5/12/2025
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.
3/31/2025
Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.
3/11/2025
Mar 11, 2025
The monthly USDA WASDE report was today and it was about as boring as it can get.  The USDA took the month off leaving corn and beans carryouts unchanged.  Corn remains at 1.540 billion bushels and beans at 380 million bushels.  World ending stocks were slightly lowered on both corn and beans.  World corn was pegged at 288.94 million tonnes vs 290.3 million tonnes previously.  World beans were pegged at 121.4 million tonnes vs 124.3 million tonnes previously.  All of the South American crop production estimates were also left unchanged.