10/14/2020

China showed up on the sales today and the markets rebounded on the news.  They announced 264,000 metric ton of beans to China and 420,000 metric ton of corn to China.  Corn spreads went crazy on the news with Dec - July finishing at 9 cents carry.  That doesn't feel right with a 2.1 million carryout and an export that is front loaded with bean business through December.  Who wants the corn right away besides Ethanol when harvest is over?  The farmer is a reluctant seller at the moment on his corn crop as the bean sales covered the need for cash.  Last night harvest progress had corn at 41% and beans at 61%.  It is going quick and it looks like weather will allow that to continue for the balance of the month.  There is talk of improved chances for rain in parts of Brazil and Argentina, but current supplies remain tight.  The volatility is here to stay for a while not only in the cash market, but the spreads as well.