Grain > Commentary > 10-14-2020

10/14/2020

Oct 14, 2020

10/14/2020
China showed up on the sales today and the markets rebounded on the news.  They announced 264,000 metric ton of beans to China and 420,000 metric ton of corn to China.  Corn spreads went crazy on the news with Dec - July finishing at 9 cents carry.  That doesn't feel right with a 2.1 million carryout and an export that is front loaded with bean business through December.  Who wants the corn right away besides Ethanol when harvest is over?  The farmer is a reluctant seller at the moment on his corn crop as the bean sales covered the need for cash.  Last night harvest progress had corn at 41% and beans at 61%.  It is going quick and it looks like weather will allow that to continue for the balance of the month.  There is talk of improved chances for rain in parts of Brazil and Argentina, but current supplies remain tight.  The volatility is here to stay for a while not only in the cash market, but the spreads as well.
 

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2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.