10/13/2023

Oct 13, 2023


Profit taking to end the week was featured on Friday following Thursday's huge rally in soybeans after the USDA printed some market friendly numbers in the October WASDE. Corn traded 2-3 cents higher and soybean trade was in 8-10 cent higher range overnight but sellers took over after the morning break. The USDA confirmed three U.S. export sales this morning for delivery in 2023/24: 181,000 tonnes of wheat to China; 117,300 tonnes of soybeans to unknown; 100,000 tonnes of soymeal to unknown. The weekly export sales report exceeded trade expectations with 652k tonnes of wheat, 910k tonnes of corn, and 1.057 mln tonnes of soybeans sold last week. Marketing year-to-date sales for corn are short of the pace needed to hit the USDA target by 47 million bushels, unchanged from last week. Marketing year-to-date sales for soybeans are short of the pace needed to hit the USDA target by 150 million bushels compared to 141 million bushels short last week.

Some nice pushes higher following yesterday’s report but no breakouts to the upside in either corn or soybeans. The 5 handle has turned into a point of stiff resistance in December corn where we have traded a fairly tight 25 cent range over the past two months. The November bean chart set up with two points of resistance converging with the 1300 handle meeting the trendline off of our August high almost perfectly.

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.