10/13/2023

Oct 13, 2023


Profit taking to end the week was featured on Friday following Thursday's huge rally in soybeans after the USDA printed some market friendly numbers in the October WASDE. Corn traded 2-3 cents higher and soybean trade was in 8-10 cent higher range overnight but sellers took over after the morning break. The USDA confirmed three U.S. export sales this morning for delivery in 2023/24: 181,000 tonnes of wheat to China; 117,300 tonnes of soybeans to unknown; 100,000 tonnes of soymeal to unknown. The weekly export sales report exceeded trade expectations with 652k tonnes of wheat, 910k tonnes of corn, and 1.057 mln tonnes of soybeans sold last week. Marketing year-to-date sales for corn are short of the pace needed to hit the USDA target by 47 million bushels, unchanged from last week. Marketing year-to-date sales for soybeans are short of the pace needed to hit the USDA target by 150 million bushels compared to 141 million bushels short last week.

Some nice pushes higher following yesterday’s report but no breakouts to the upside in either corn or soybeans. The 5 handle has turned into a point of stiff resistance in December corn where we have traded a fairly tight 25 cent range over the past two months. The November bean chart set up with two points of resistance converging with the 1300 handle meeting the trendline off of our August high almost perfectly.

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Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.