10/13/2023

Oct 13, 2023


Profit taking to end the week was featured on Friday following Thursday's huge rally in soybeans after the USDA printed some market friendly numbers in the October WASDE. Corn traded 2-3 cents higher and soybean trade was in 8-10 cent higher range overnight but sellers took over after the morning break. The USDA confirmed three U.S. export sales this morning for delivery in 2023/24: 181,000 tonnes of wheat to China; 117,300 tonnes of soybeans to unknown; 100,000 tonnes of soymeal to unknown. The weekly export sales report exceeded trade expectations with 652k tonnes of wheat, 910k tonnes of corn, and 1.057 mln tonnes of soybeans sold last week. Marketing year-to-date sales for corn are short of the pace needed to hit the USDA target by 47 million bushels, unchanged from last week. Marketing year-to-date sales for soybeans are short of the pace needed to hit the USDA target by 150 million bushels compared to 141 million bushels short last week.

Some nice pushes higher following yesterday’s report but no breakouts to the upside in either corn or soybeans. The 5 handle has turned into a point of stiff resistance in December corn where we have traded a fairly tight 25 cent range over the past two months. The November bean chart set up with two points of resistance converging with the 1300 handle meeting the trendline off of our August high almost perfectly.

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.