10/13/2021

Oct 13, 2021


10/13/2021
Corn and soybeans made an attempt to recover during overnight trade but the effects of the bearish WASDE report were just too much. I suspected yesterday's price breaks could be the spark we needed to drum up some export business and the USDA made three 8 am sales announcement this morning; 161,544 tonnes of corn to unknown for 21/22, 330,000 tonnes of soybeans to China for 21/22, and 198,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown for 21/22. The front months for corn and soybeans both tested their closest major support levels today and managed to find some solid buying interest at those marks. Most ag commodities saw some steep numbers in the red today, including wheat and oats seeing double digit losses. Yesterday, the FSA was scheduled to release their updated acreage data for October but they have delayed this release. Crop progress highlights from yesterday: corn harvest seen at 41% complete, ahead of last year (39%) and well ahead of average (31%). Soybean harvest seen at 49% complete, behind last year (58%) but ahead of average (40%). Our markets have been hit rather hard in a short period of time so it wouldn't be a shock to see some sort of recoil action or bounce higher going into the weekend. Those types of short rallies are the ones to sell into.

Below:
Today saw good technical recoveries on the front months for corn and soybeans. Corn tested its first major support level of 507'0 and soybeans quickly tested support at 1184'0 after closing below 1240'0 at the beginning of the week.1.jpg

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.