10/13/2021

Oct 13, 2021


10/13/2021
Corn and soybeans made an attempt to recover during overnight trade but the effects of the bearish WASDE report were just too much. I suspected yesterday's price breaks could be the spark we needed to drum up some export business and the USDA made three 8 am sales announcement this morning; 161,544 tonnes of corn to unknown for 21/22, 330,000 tonnes of soybeans to China for 21/22, and 198,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown for 21/22. The front months for corn and soybeans both tested their closest major support levels today and managed to find some solid buying interest at those marks. Most ag commodities saw some steep numbers in the red today, including wheat and oats seeing double digit losses. Yesterday, the FSA was scheduled to release their updated acreage data for October but they have delayed this release. Crop progress highlights from yesterday: corn harvest seen at 41% complete, ahead of last year (39%) and well ahead of average (31%). Soybean harvest seen at 49% complete, behind last year (58%) but ahead of average (40%). Our markets have been hit rather hard in a short period of time so it wouldn't be a shock to see some sort of recoil action or bounce higher going into the weekend. Those types of short rallies are the ones to sell into.

Below:
Today saw good technical recoveries on the front months for corn and soybeans. Corn tested its first major support level of 507'0 and soybeans quickly tested support at 1184'0 after closing below 1240'0 at the beginning of the week.1.jpg

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Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.