Grain > Commentary > 10-13-2020

10/13/2020

Oct 13, 2020

10/13/2020
We had one sale announcement this morning, which was 110,000 metric tons of corn to Mexico.  It felt a bit disappointing that there were no China sales announced as they came out of their holiday.  Corn and beans bounced some today after yesterday's correction, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a bit more of a correction to the downside.  The 10.20 futures area looks to be a short-term target area to the downside, with 9.80 longer term.  When the funds are this long and everyone is one side leaning bullish it seems to change in a hurry.  Like I said before be careful and expect lots of volatility thru the winter in the soybean market.  We will get harvest progress tonight as we are expecting beans at 59% harvested and corn at 39% harvested.  It’s going quick and weather looks like it will allow for more harvest to get completed.  It looks like we are in for a bit of a cool down for the next two weeks. 
 

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.