10/12/2022

Oct 12, 2022


10/12/2022
The October WASDE gave the market mostly what it was expecting.  The USDA lowered corn yield to 171.9 and made a sizeable cut to this year's soybean yield, pinning it at 49.8 bu/ac.  Those are drops of 0.6 and 0.7 bu/ac from the September report.  A lot of numbers were moved around on the corn balance sheet this month.  Along with the decrease in production, the USDA also lowered total use by 125 million bushels.  December corn traded its high and low marks for the day within 5 minutes of the report release before settling back at unchanged.  This make three consecutive reports from the USDA that have been friendly for corn and the market has failed to hold $7.00 or higher on the board.  The report was less eventful for soybeans.  The lower production estimate was met with a sizeable reduction in exports and we ended up with an unchanged ending stocks number of 200 million bushels.  Initial reaction to the report saw soybeans trade 38 cents higher on the November contract to 1414'0 before settling at 1396'0.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.