10/12/2022

Oct 12, 2022


10/12/2022
The October WASDE gave the market mostly what it was expecting.  The USDA lowered corn yield to 171.9 and made a sizeable cut to this year's soybean yield, pinning it at 49.8 bu/ac.  Those are drops of 0.6 and 0.7 bu/ac from the September report.  A lot of numbers were moved around on the corn balance sheet this month.  Along with the decrease in production, the USDA also lowered total use by 125 million bushels.  December corn traded its high and low marks for the day within 5 minutes of the report release before settling back at unchanged.  This make three consecutive reports from the USDA that have been friendly for corn and the market has failed to hold $7.00 or higher on the board.  The report was less eventful for soybeans.  The lower production estimate was met with a sizeable reduction in exports and we ended up with an unchanged ending stocks number of 200 million bushels.  Initial reaction to the report saw soybeans trade 38 cents higher on the November contract to 1414'0 before settling at 1396'0.

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.