Grain > Commentary > 10-12-2020

10/12/2020

Oct 12, 2020

10/12/2020
Today turned out to be correction day.  We got a friendly report on Friday and were unable to make new highs today.  We finished right at support at 10.33 November futures.  The next level of support is 10.23.  Corn has a ways to go to hit support at 3.83 and 3.76 December futures.  The main reason for the correction today seems to be added rain in the forecast for Brazil.  It doesn't take much to drop the market like this when the funds are at record lengths and taking profits.  With that being said do I think the bean market is over?  I doubt it.  The 290 carryout the USDA just gave us remains friendly.  This winter we will still likely see wild swings trading demand news, South American weather, and of course the election.  Buckle in for a while.  This correction is overdue without a doubt.  The corn report was not real friendly, as it continues to follow the soybean market.  The DOW is up 250 points as we close in on that 29k level we can't seem to hold.  We will not get an updated harvest pace until tomorrow since it is Columbus Day. 
 

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8/12/2025
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
5/12/2025
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.
3/31/2025
Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.