Grain > Commentary > 10-12-2020

10/12/2020

Oct 12, 2020

10/12/2020
Today turned out to be correction day.  We got a friendly report on Friday and were unable to make new highs today.  We finished right at support at 10.33 November futures.  The next level of support is 10.23.  Corn has a ways to go to hit support at 3.83 and 3.76 December futures.  The main reason for the correction today seems to be added rain in the forecast for Brazil.  It doesn't take much to drop the market like this when the funds are at record lengths and taking profits.  With that being said do I think the bean market is over?  I doubt it.  The 290 carryout the USDA just gave us remains friendly.  This winter we will still likely see wild swings trading demand news, South American weather, and of course the election.  Buckle in for a while.  This correction is overdue without a doubt.  The corn report was not real friendly, as it continues to follow the soybean market.  The DOW is up 250 points as we close in on that 29k level we can't seem to hold.  We will not get an updated harvest pace until tomorrow since it is Columbus Day. 
 

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1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.