Grain > Commentary > 10-12-2020

10/12/2020

Oct 12, 2020

10/12/2020
Today turned out to be correction day.  We got a friendly report on Friday and were unable to make new highs today.  We finished right at support at 10.33 November futures.  The next level of support is 10.23.  Corn has a ways to go to hit support at 3.83 and 3.76 December futures.  The main reason for the correction today seems to be added rain in the forecast for Brazil.  It doesn't take much to drop the market like this when the funds are at record lengths and taking profits.  With that being said do I think the bean market is over?  I doubt it.  The 290 carryout the USDA just gave us remains friendly.  This winter we will still likely see wild swings trading demand news, South American weather, and of course the election.  Buckle in for a while.  This correction is overdue without a doubt.  The corn report was not real friendly, as it continues to follow the soybean market.  The DOW is up 250 points as we close in on that 29k level we can't seem to hold.  We will not get an updated harvest pace until tomorrow since it is Columbus Day. 
 

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9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
8/15/2025
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.