Grain > Commentary > 10-11-2021

10/11/2021

Oct 11, 2021

10/11/2021
The overnight session offered little for excitement to start our week.  Today's trade was all about positioning ahead of tomorrow's WASDE report.  Weakness in soybeans as the carry-in will get larger and it feels like the size of the US crop, whether it’s in yield or acres, could also get larger.  Soybeans finished last week on a weak note and selling followed through today.  The November contract finished the day well below the 1240'0 support level, we could see a test of the 1200'0 and 1184'0 support levels in the near future.  A couple cents better in corn today with money positioning on the long side ahead of tomorrow's report.  Corn carry-in will get larger tomorrow but the question will be 2021 corn production and if the USDA changes it.  Federal offices were closed for holiday today so we will get our USDA harvest progress report, export flash sales (if any), and a glut of other information to trade tomorrow.

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2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.