Grain > Commentary > 10-11-2021

10/11/2021

Oct 11, 2021

10/11/2021
The overnight session offered little for excitement to start our week.  Today's trade was all about positioning ahead of tomorrow's WASDE report.  Weakness in soybeans as the carry-in will get larger and it feels like the size of the US crop, whether it’s in yield or acres, could also get larger.  Soybeans finished last week on a weak note and selling followed through today.  The November contract finished the day well below the 1240'0 support level, we could see a test of the 1200'0 and 1184'0 support levels in the near future.  A couple cents better in corn today with money positioning on the long side ahead of tomorrow's report.  Corn carry-in will get larger tomorrow but the question will be 2021 corn production and if the USDA changes it.  Federal offices were closed for holiday today so we will get our USDA harvest progress report, export flash sales (if any), and a glut of other information to trade tomorrow.

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7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
5/12/2026
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.