10/11/2021

Oct 11, 2021


10/11/2021
The overnight session offered little for excitement to start our week.  Today's trade was all about positioning ahead of tomorrow's WASDE report.  Weakness in soybeans as the carry-in will get larger and it feels like the size of the US crop, whether it’s in yield or acres, could also get larger.  Soybeans finished last week on a weak note and selling followed through today.  The November contract finished the day well below the 1240'0 support level, we could see a test of the 1200'0 and 1184'0 support levels in the near future.  A couple cents better in corn today with money positioning on the long side ahead of tomorrow's report.  Corn carry-in will get larger tomorrow but the question will be 2021 corn production and if the USDA changes it.  Federal offices were closed for holiday today so we will get our USDA harvest progress report, export flash sales (if any), and a glut of other information to trade tomorrow.

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.