10/10/2022

Oct 10, 2022


10/10/2022
Wheat was the price leader today with the Chicago and Kansas City boards nearly reaching 70 cents higher shortly after 8:30 this morning.  Minneapolis wheat surged to as much as 56 cents higher on the day.  A weekend of war escalation between Russia and Ukraine was all the excuse money needed to buy.  Wheat sustained the sharply higher trade rather well, able to end the day within 10-12 cents of their high marks.  The spill-over buying flooded into corn and soybeans.  Corn broke to the high side, sending the December contract to trade above $7.00 for the first time since late June.  Trade was unable to hold the 7 handle and closed a couple pennies under.  November soybeans looked ready to break back into the $14.00 range but were sold off swiftly just short of that mark.  Following a solid weekend of harvest, the sharply higher markets made the farmer an active seller today.  Trade expects some fresh numbers in the October WASDE report on Wednesday including further yield cuts to this year's U.S. corn and soybean crops.  Even if realized, we still need to be careful being long-term bullish following today's price action and a friendly report.  Most macro indicators are still predicting large economic recession early in 2023.  Yield reports from our area and around the grain belt have also not been in favor of those hoping for a crop disaster.

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.