Grain > Commentary > 10-10-2022

10/10/2022

Oct 10, 2022

10/10/2022
Wheat was the price leader today with the Chicago and Kansas City boards nearly reaching 70 cents higher shortly after 8:30 this morning.  Minneapolis wheat surged to as much as 56 cents higher on the day.  A weekend of war escalation between Russia and Ukraine was all the excuse money needed to buy.  Wheat sustained the sharply higher trade rather well, able to end the day within 10-12 cents of their high marks.  The spill-over buying flooded into corn and soybeans.  Corn broke to the high side, sending the December contract to trade above $7.00 for the first time since late June.  Trade was unable to hold the 7 handle and closed a couple pennies under.  November soybeans looked ready to break back into the $14.00 range but were sold off swiftly just short of that mark.  Following a solid weekend of harvest, the sharply higher markets made the farmer an active seller today.  Trade expects some fresh numbers in the October WASDE report on Wednesday including further yield cuts to this year's U.S. corn and soybean crops.  Even if realized, we still need to be careful being long-term bullish following today's price action and a friendly report.  Most macro indicators are still predicting large economic recession early in 2023.  Yield reports from our area and around the grain belt have also not been in favor of those hoping for a crop disaster.

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1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.