Grain > Commentary > 1-9-2024

1/9/2024

Jan 09, 2024

Corn and soybeans manage to hold on to some small gains to complete a modest turn-around Tuesday.  Once again, no major new or market headlines to trade but just ahead of the close there was a murmur of some potential corn export business FINALLY getting done.  Full estimates for our USDA report on Friday show that analysts expect South American crop production to be cut roughly 3% from the December report but is still expected to provide a significant influx of supply to the market during their seasonal harvests.  U.S. crop figures and data are expected to be mostly unchanged from December with corn sticking with a 174.9 bu/ac yield but a slight trimming of acres to bring down total production.  The soybean balance sheet is expected to show virtually no changes from December.  Despite estimates not expecting too much in terms of surprises, this report still carries a lot of weight as it is considered the USDA's "official" guess for U.S. corn and soybean production and will provide us with acres and yield numbers we will use on our balance sheets for the remainder of the crop year.

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2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.