Grain > Commentary > 1-9-2023

1/9/2023

Jan 09, 2023

1/9/2023
A quiet start to the week in corn and soybeans.  Overnight trade was steady in the range of 1-3 cents higher for corn and 5-10 cents higher in soybeans.  Trade gave way to weakness shortly after the 8:30 open where corn and beans hovered backwards to trade either side of unchanged.  We will likely remain in relatively tight ranges as we move towards Thursday's big data dump from the USDA.  The weekly export inspections report was, once again, lacking anything exciting.  Corn shipments totaled 398k tonnes and soybean shipments came in at 1.438 mln tonnes.  These figures were on the low-end of expectations for corn and mid-range for soybeans.  Marketing year shipment pace for corn is currently 150 million bushels below the USDA target, soybeans at 46 million bushels behind target.  Despite what some are calling severe dry weather, pre-report estimates show Argentina still producing a larger crop than last year.  Trade also expects the USDA to show a 9% increase in Brazil's corn crop this year and a 20% increase in soy production.

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2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.