1/9/2023

Jan 09, 2023


1/9/2023
A quiet start to the week in corn and soybeans.  Overnight trade was steady in the range of 1-3 cents higher for corn and 5-10 cents higher in soybeans.  Trade gave way to weakness shortly after the 8:30 open where corn and beans hovered backwards to trade either side of unchanged.  We will likely remain in relatively tight ranges as we move towards Thursday's big data dump from the USDA.  The weekly export inspections report was, once again, lacking anything exciting.  Corn shipments totaled 398k tonnes and soybean shipments came in at 1.438 mln tonnes.  These figures were on the low-end of expectations for corn and mid-range for soybeans.  Marketing year shipment pace for corn is currently 150 million bushels below the USDA target, soybeans at 46 million bushels behind target.  Despite what some are calling severe dry weather, pre-report estimates show Argentina still producing a larger crop than last year.  Trade also expects the USDA to show a 9% increase in Brazil's corn crop this year and a 20% increase in soy production.

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Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.