1/8/2024

The markets were off to a rocky start to begin the week of our final production report. Since the completion of harvest, wheat had been the lone bright spot for U.S. export business but rumors began brewing over the weekend that a portion of these extra wheat sales were now getting canceled along with some soybean sales. Given current market conditions, the rumors were all that was needed for trade to continue lower. After hanging steady overnight, the 8:30 opening bell brought some heavy selling along with it. Corn trickled into some fresh 3-year lows while soybeans look like they will test support at the trendline ranging from the Covid lows to the May 23 lows at some point this week. Weekly export inspections for corn were solid last week and near the high side of expectations at 857k tonnes. Last week's soybean shipments underwhelmed and missed their trading range to the low side at 675k tonnes shipped. Shipment pace for soybeans continues to tumble, falling from 36 million bushels short last week to 57 million bushels shy of the USDA target this week. Corn shipments gained some ground, flipping from 5 million bushels short of the USDA target to a 3-million-bushel surplus.

Corn broke out to the bottom side today, taking out an 8 month trendline. Will need some major influence on the market to recover, at this point.