1/8/2021

Jan 08, 2021


1/8/2021
Our first week of 2021 ends with corn trading firmly higher overnight and through the day session and beans posting double digit gains in both sessions. We had an 8 am sale announcement of 204,000 tonnes of beans to CHINA! We assume most of our sales marked to "unknown" are bound for China but this morning's announcement is almost like they wanted us to see it. We still have mixture of bullish and bearish news. The next 10 days show favorable crop weather in South America and at the same time, China's domestic corn price hit another all-time high. With the price of corn increasing globally and the labor dispute fully resolved, Argentina is already debating a repeal of the 60-day export ban on corn it just put in place a matter of days ago. March soybeans surged to another contract high of 1386 midday after a blast of heavy buying interest sent trade to 30 cents higher on the day in a matter of minutes. Any large volume purchases of commodities by China is typically for storage but they they continue to purchase for immediate use and appear to be a blackhole of demand Monday should see corn trade within range and trade consolidation on beans in preparation for the WASDE report on Tuesday. Have a good weekend!

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.