1/8/2021

Jan 08, 2021


1/8/2021
Our first week of 2021 ends with corn trading firmly higher overnight and through the day session and beans posting double digit gains in both sessions. We had an 8 am sale announcement of 204,000 tonnes of beans to CHINA! We assume most of our sales marked to "unknown" are bound for China but this morning's announcement is almost like they wanted us to see it. We still have mixture of bullish and bearish news. The next 10 days show favorable crop weather in South America and at the same time, China's domestic corn price hit another all-time high. With the price of corn increasing globally and the labor dispute fully resolved, Argentina is already debating a repeal of the 60-day export ban on corn it just put in place a matter of days ago. March soybeans surged to another contract high of 1386 midday after a blast of heavy buying interest sent trade to 30 cents higher on the day in a matter of minutes. Any large volume purchases of commodities by China is typically for storage but they they continue to purchase for immediate use and appear to be a blackhole of demand Monday should see corn trade within range and trade consolidation on beans in preparation for the WASDE report on Tuesday. Have a good weekend!

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.