1/8/2021

Jan 08, 2021


1/8/2021
Our first week of 2021 ends with corn trading firmly higher overnight and through the day session and beans posting double digit gains in both sessions. We had an 8 am sale announcement of 204,000 tonnes of beans to CHINA! We assume most of our sales marked to "unknown" are bound for China but this morning's announcement is almost like they wanted us to see it. We still have mixture of bullish and bearish news. The next 10 days show favorable crop weather in South America and at the same time, China's domestic corn price hit another all-time high. With the price of corn increasing globally and the labor dispute fully resolved, Argentina is already debating a repeal of the 60-day export ban on corn it just put in place a matter of days ago. March soybeans surged to another contract high of 1386 midday after a blast of heavy buying interest sent trade to 30 cents higher on the day in a matter of minutes. Any large volume purchases of commodities by China is typically for storage but they they continue to purchase for immediate use and appear to be a blackhole of demand Monday should see corn trade within range and trade consolidation on beans in preparation for the WASDE report on Tuesday. Have a good weekend!

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.