Grain > Commentary > 1-7-2022

1/7/2022

Jan 07, 2022

1/7/2022
Strong moves higher in soybean meal and soybeans lead the way going into the weekend.  The overnight session closed in a sea of red and trade immediately popped to the green at the 8:30am open.  A quick look at the 1-minute soybean charts show a big buy-stop blast across the contracts around 10:20 this morning, sending March futures firmly above the 1400'0 level.  Corn benefited minimally from spillover support, closing 3 cents higher on the day but price action was limited and seemed reluctant to follow soybeans.  We had two USDA sale announcements at 8am this morning.  176,784 tonnes of corn to Mexico for the 2021/22 marketing year and 120,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown for the 2022/23 marketing year.  The rumor mill was working double-time today with "China" and "big purchase" being used in the same sentence repeatedly.  Market bulls needed something new to trade with the South American weather story beyond beaten to death.  We love to see these higher prices for our growers but now it's time to evaluate what the potential market upside in next week's report is.  If South America production and China demand are already priced in what, what's left?  The export market has some issues that need to be resolved that include expensive freight and current performance is absolutely atrocious.  There is a lot of grain remaining to be shipped in the marketing year and the fundamentals have potential to become unfriendly in a hurry.

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1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.