Grain > Commentary > 1-7-2022

1/7/2022

Jan 07, 2022

1/7/2022
Strong moves higher in soybean meal and soybeans lead the way going into the weekend.  The overnight session closed in a sea of red and trade immediately popped to the green at the 8:30am open.  A quick look at the 1-minute soybean charts show a big buy-stop blast across the contracts around 10:20 this morning, sending March futures firmly above the 1400'0 level.  Corn benefited minimally from spillover support, closing 3 cents higher on the day but price action was limited and seemed reluctant to follow soybeans.  We had two USDA sale announcements at 8am this morning.  176,784 tonnes of corn to Mexico for the 2021/22 marketing year and 120,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown for the 2022/23 marketing year.  The rumor mill was working double-time today with "China" and "big purchase" being used in the same sentence repeatedly.  Market bulls needed something new to trade with the South American weather story beyond beaten to death.  We love to see these higher prices for our growers but now it's time to evaluate what the potential market upside in next week's report is.  If South America production and China demand are already priced in what, what's left?  The export market has some issues that need to be resolved that include expensive freight and current performance is absolutely atrocious.  There is a lot of grain remaining to be shipped in the marketing year and the fundamentals have potential to become unfriendly in a hurry.

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